By Khairi Abaza

The popular uprising in Egypt invites a variety of historical comparisons. It could end up like Bucharest in 1989 — cosmetic change in the leadership that subsequently resulted in violent overthrow of the dictator. Or perhaps Tehran in 1979 — a mass movement hijacked by a small group of ideologues.

Another possibility, hinted at by the violence of pro-Mubarak mobs — is Tiananmen Square in 1989. But Beijing was able to save itself with brutality only because it produced enough economic growth in the 1990s to placate the masses. That won’t happen in Egypt. In any event, the country’s Islamist movement — which can be expected to continue using the sanctity of the mosque to protect itself — would be well placed to take advantage of the resultant avalanche of public anger following a Tiananmen-style crackdown.

The only way for Egypt to become free, while avoiding an Islamist takeover, is through the model of Berlin 1989. Just as the fall of the Berlin Wall opened the path to political freedom in East Germany, a liberal opening in Egypt could revive the country’s pre-1952 tradition of democratic values.

Egypt is the epicenter of the Arab world — not only demographically (one out of every four Arabs lives along the Nile), but also intellectually and politically. The emergence of liberal democracy in Egypt would send shock waves throughout the Arab world in the same way the fall of the Berlin Wall inspired East Europeans to stand against communist dictatorships.

Since the 1950s, authoritarian regimes have dominated most Arab countries. These dictatorships have implemented a variety of illiberal ideologies including totalitarianism and Pan-Arab socialism. Such ideologies have failed, and in the wake of their failure have spawned Islamist movements that mirror the regimes’ illiberal ways.

Until recently, this has left many in the West with the false impression that Arab countries face a choice limited to secular dictatorship and theocracy. The recent popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt suggest that this does not have to be the case. There is a third option: liberal democracy.

To this end, a first step in Egypt would be a national unity government that would prepare the groundwork for free and fair elections after drafting a 21st century-style pluralistic constitution for the country. All political parties that recognize the primacy of democracy would be included in the unity government. In the interim, a representative from the country’s respected military could temporarily hold the presidency, providing the country with stability during the transition to democracy.

The United States, Canada and Europe should support such a process. Only a liberal democratic Egypt can provide sustainable stability for itself and its region.

National Post

Khairi Abaza is a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

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